Preface
The events of 11 September 2001 defy modern economic theory when addressed
in aviation terms. Economic theory would suggest that, once the impact
of such events are a thing of the past, and economies are restored to their
status quo ante, a rise in the gross domestic product of States to earlier
levels would almost inevitably result in increased consumption. This in
turn would mean that the demand for air travel would rise to earlier proportions
and consumption in terms of air transport services would be restored to
normalcy. However, the September attacks on United States' property introduced
a unique characteristic through the fear factor that directly impacts the
future development of air transport. As a result, the grim task of restoration
of passenger confidence stands in the way of economic revival of the air
transport industry.
In a manner of speaking, aviation was always in crisis. The air transport
industry, even prior to 11 September 2001, although seemingly a glamorous,
exciting and prosperous business, never enjoyed sustained periods of profitability.
Even among the large carriers, a short bout of profitability would inevitably
be followed by a period of downturn in real income. There is nothing arcane
about this situation. It is simply that this fluctuation in fortune is
an ineluctable characteristic of air transport, whose fortunes are dictated
by rigid regulation, competition and technological change. For this reason,
it would be doing the air transport industry an injustice if an analysis
of the situation it is faced with should be strictly bifurcated into pre
and post September 2001 segments. However, this by no means suggests that
the tragic events of September did not gravely aggravate the fortunes of
an industry already at a disadvantage. They placed issues in a strictly
realistic perspective, making one realise that, if a sustained analysis
were to be made of air transport, plain economic theory would no longer
be the exclusive discipline for consideration. Rather, all relevant factors
have to be taken in context and emerging issues should be analysed as possible
threats to the economic well being of the air transport industry.
Any study of present day aviation would incontrovertibly involve viewing
issues both from an economic and legal perspective in addition to other
relevant factors . In the field of aviation security, these two disciplines
are intertwined with the regulatory regime, calling for a wide discussion
of legal and regulatory regimes in the role played by States in ensuring
security in aviation within their territories. In a parallel dimension,
the importance of economic issues can be viewed as predominant in the field
of insurance, particularly in the inquiry as to whether States should be
establishing an aviation reinsurance pool to support airlines in crisis,
thus giving States much more control over the running of their national
airlines. Therefore, in an overall sense, the question arises as to whether
increased State involvement in both security and insurance issues would
not bring back rigid State control over national carriers. If this question
were to be answered in the affirmative and day to day State control makes
a comeback ,one would unavoidably have to inquire into the continued validity
of gradual liberalization of market access, bringing the commercial angle
into play and forming an interlinked triangle. When this phenomenon occurs,
the necessary corollary - the question as to whether absolute competition
would no longer be a collective goal among States, and whether the need
for added capacity would therefore no longer arise in the volumes earlier
required - would inevitably obviate the earlier compelling necessity for
airlines to order new aircraft. They could continue using aircraft already
in use to their maximum capacity. This added dimension would introduce
environmental considerations, making the entire study a complex fabric
woven with different but symbiotic threads.
This book will not only address issues in a rigid post September 2001
context but would analyse issues past and present, with the intent of looking
at the future. This will be attempted by taking four major areas into consideration
which were in crisis but are truly impacted by the events of September
2001. These areas relate to crises in the commercial, security, insurance
and environmental protection fields. Of these the first and fourth areas
are inextricably intertwined, as aircraft noise regulations in various
States have a direct impact on aircraft financing, which in turn is linked
to demand for air services. A drop in demand for air services would essentially
mean that the demand for lease or purchase of new aircraft would drop.
When this occurs, air transport enterprises would be more inclined to cut
costs and therefore concentrate on using the aircraft already at hand,
upgrading them to conform to the more demanding noise and emissions regulatory
standards. It therefore becomes necessary to view all these factors separately,
in the multitude of issues they provide, with a view to understanding the
course which the air transport industry would be taking in the future.
The purpose of this book is to view the overall picture of an aviation
industry - comprising air transport and other aviation related industries
- in crisis, through issues that continue to impact the economic viability
of air transport, particularly as a result of the events of 11 September
2001.
Ruwantissa Abeyratne
Montreal
December 2001
Foreword
This work, the latest in a series of impressive treatises by Dr. Abeyratne, will not fail to enlighten
any lawyer or executive concerned with the current challenges facing the international airline industry.
Focusing, from a primarily regulatory and aeropolitical perspective, on the crisis facing the airline industry,
both before and after 11 September, 2001, Dr. Abeyratne has drawn together, in typical thoroughness and
eloquence, a broad diversity of topics of fundamental significance to the industry. These
include the implications of the depressed state of the industry on security, commercial transactions
(including leasing and financing), insurance, environmental issues, and air carrier liability.
Since the response of the world community to the crises in airline security, commercial transactions,
and insurance has been largely voiced through the medium of the International Civil Aviation Organization
(ICAO), Dr. Abeyratne's vantage point, as a senior legal officer in ICAO, makes him peculiarly qualified to address the topics considered in this work.
The reader will be impressed by the ability of the author to write with first-hand knowledge and
experience on matters of both public and private international law, while at the same time considering the
issues in numerous municipal jurisdictions, including the United Kingdom, United States, and Canada.
This carefully researched and well-written book, which draws on the author's vast experience in the airline
industry at both the governmental and private levels, represents a significant contribution to the literature in
the field. I commend it to all who have an interest of any kind in the legal issues affecting the airline
industry.
Rod D. Margo
Los Angeles
February, 2002
Contents